ASO Model & DCF

Long-term cash generation and returns to shareholders

As a follow up to my initial post on Academy Sports + Outdoors, here is a link to my financial model and discounted cash flow analysis. Updates will be made quarterly.

The company has committed to returning 100% of free cash flow back to investors through long-term debt pay down, dividends, and share repurchases. At current market value, the company will generate and return approximately 85% of their market cap to investors over the next five years AND expand store count by 50%.

In the next five years, Academy can achieve:

• Pay off long-term debt, net of current cash position ~$583M

• Pay annual dividend of ~$28M ($140M total)

• Repurchase ~$2.75B of shares (about 65% of current market cap)

• Expand store count from 270 to ~400

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Disclosure: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. I own shares of ASO. I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice. As always, do your own research.

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