Would you say that the current stock price of UBER is undervalued right now? I've watching them for quite a bit as well as Didi in China and similar operators in the APAC region
Hey Max, I think paying 20x free cash flow for a business with the global scale, growth, industry/demographic tailwinds, new business opps, and new shareholder friendly capital allocation profile is very fair. I don't offer advice but I own it here at this price and would continue to add to my position if it were to fall further without a material change to fundamentals.
Great article! I tried Waymo earlier this year during a trip to San Francisco, and I believe it's the way to go. My question is, after seeing what happened with China's e-commerce after Temu and Shein disrupted Alibaba, will the market remain loyal to the incumbent marketplace or to the tech/product suppliers?
Glad to hear the Waymo was a good ride! Always a possibility, I just think shipping cheap goods direct to consumer is a lot easier of a marketplace to build and a logistical problem to solve than moving people. Ultimately the Tesla fleets make sense for being the high volume opp for Tesla. But just like restaurants who have direct delivery (Jimmy John’s, pizza, etc etc) they also put their products on Uber to gain higher utilization rates. I can’t imagine a world where that isn’t also true with cars.
Nice article. However it is about perception in tech. With robot axis coming in say two years the industry will be disrupted. Brad is getting out early. My largest position is NVDA until a disrupter is on the horizon.
The question is what value are you giving Uber as the supplier of the marketplace , if it cost tesla even $25B to rebuild that is Uber worth $150B . Uber might still be an important part of the industry but they might lose all meaningfull moat and control to tesla. That the big risk IMO.
I agree, it’s a risk. I just think the probability that they want to spend 100% of FCF for the next ~5 years (at the expense of all their other endeavors)to try and build their own marketplace when they could take 80% of the economics and plug in to Uber over night for zero cost, is just really low.
Would you say that the current stock price of UBER is undervalued right now? I've watching them for quite a bit as well as Didi in China and similar operators in the APAC region
Hey Max, I think paying 20x free cash flow for a business with the global scale, growth, industry/demographic tailwinds, new business opps, and new shareholder friendly capital allocation profile is very fair. I don't offer advice but I own it here at this price and would continue to add to my position if it were to fall further without a material change to fundamentals.
Great article! I tried Waymo earlier this year during a trip to San Francisco, and I believe it's the way to go. My question is, after seeing what happened with China's e-commerce after Temu and Shein disrupted Alibaba, will the market remain loyal to the incumbent marketplace or to the tech/product suppliers?
Glad to hear the Waymo was a good ride! Always a possibility, I just think shipping cheap goods direct to consumer is a lot easier of a marketplace to build and a logistical problem to solve than moving people. Ultimately the Tesla fleets make sense for being the high volume opp for Tesla. But just like restaurants who have direct delivery (Jimmy John’s, pizza, etc etc) they also put their products on Uber to gain higher utilization rates. I can’t imagine a world where that isn’t also true with cars.
Nice article. However it is about perception in tech. With robot axis coming in say two years the industry will be disrupted. Brad is getting out early. My largest position is NVDA until a disrupter is on the horizon.
The question is what value are you giving Uber as the supplier of the marketplace , if it cost tesla even $25B to rebuild that is Uber worth $150B . Uber might still be an important part of the industry but they might lose all meaningfull moat and control to tesla. That the big risk IMO.
I agree, it’s a risk. I just think the probability that they want to spend 100% of FCF for the next ~5 years (at the expense of all their other endeavors)to try and build their own marketplace when they could take 80% of the economics and plug in to Uber over night for zero cost, is just really low.